The planing of sustainable development and of economic activities in the marine environment requires long term information about the prevailing environmental conditions. For the design of marine and coastal protection structures detailed knowledge on local wave conditions is an essential prerequisite. To estimate the risk which emerges from local wave conditions knowledge on both, the wave clim...

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event...

This note presents explicitly a strong connection between the Tsallis thermodynamics and the so-called prospect theory introduced to take into account agent’s decisions under risk. Moreover, using the cumulative prospect theory adapted here for a continuous framework, we show that if the Tsallis parameter q belongs to the interval [0,1], then the prospect theory requirement that extreme events ...

In the marine environment the planing of the sustainable development of economic activities requires long term information about the prevailing environmental conditions. Detailed knowledge on local wave conditions is an essential prerequisite for designing marine and coastal protection structures. To estimate the risk which emerges from local wave conditions knowledge on both, the wave climatol...

In this paper, an adaptive and predictive control architecture is proposed to improve the management of inland navigation networks in a global change context. This architecture aims at ensuring the seaworthiness conditions of inland navigation networks, and to improve the efficiency of the water resource management. It is based on supervision and prognosis modules which allow the estimation of ...

I have three main messages that I wish to present to my fellow participants. I do not claim that these messages are particularly original. My three messages are as follows. First, DO NOT rely exclusively on statistical analysis using available data. Second, DO use judgmental methods to construct models for assessing the probabilities and consequences of extreme events. Third, when uncertainties...

I will speak about a number of open problems in queueing. Some of them are known for decades, some are more recent. They relate to stability and to rare events. There is an idea to prepare a special issue of QUESTA on open problems, and this text may be considered as a prospective contribution to that. The choice of open problems reflects the speaker’s own interests, and should not be taken as ...

One challenge of economics is that the systems treated by these sciences have no perfect metronome in time and no perfect spatial architecture—crystalline or otherwise. Nonetheless, as if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. We present an overview of recent research joining practitioners of economic theory and statistical physics to try to b...

Extreme events such as natural or technological disasters challenge society’s capabilities for planning and response. While advanced technologies and modeling techniques continue to expand how society can limit and manage extreme events, flexibility and an ability to improvise remain crucial in responding to them. By analyzing a case from the response to the 2001 World Trade Center attack, this...

A methodology is proposed for studying rare events in stochastic partial differential equations in systems that are so large that standard large deviation theory does not apply. The idea is to deduce the behavior of the original model by breaking the system into appropriately scaled subsystems that are sufficiently small for large deviation theory to apply but sufficiently large to be asymptoti...