This paper has a focus on non-stationary time series formed from small non-negative integer values which may contain many zeros and may be over-dispersed. It describes a study undertaken to compare various suitable adaptations of the simple exponential smoothing method of forecasting on a database of demand series for slow moving car parts. The methods considered include simple exponential smoo...

In this article, we consider a two commodity continuous review perishable inventory system with a finite number of homogeneous sources of demands. The maximum storage capacity of i S units for the th i commodity 1,2) = (i . The life time of items of each commodity is assumed to be exponentially distributed with parameter i  1,2) = (i . The time points of primary demand occurrences form indepen...

This paper addresses two concerns with the state of the art in network revenue management with dependent demands. The first concern is that the basic attraction model (BAM), of which the multinomial logit (MNL) model is a special case, tends to overestimate demand recapture in practice. The second concern is that the choice based deterministic linear program, currently in use to derive heuristi...

Uncertain demand combined with a positive lead time for adding capacity creates the risk of capacity shortage during the lead time. Accurate shortage estimation is very important to determine a capacity expansion policy. In this paper, we investigate four kinds of option pricing methods to estimate the shortage during a fixed lead time under the assumption of an exponential trend for demand gro...

We model an isolated portion of a competitive supply chain as a M/M/1 make-tostock queue. The retailer carries finished goods inventory to service a Poisson demand process, and specifies a policy for replenishing his inventory from an upstream supplier. The supplier chooses the service rate, i.e., capacity, of his manufacturing facility, which behaves as a single-server queue with exponential s...

the aim of this study was to represent effective componentsin demand chain which help organizations attain high performance levelsthrough identification of these components and determining theirdegree of importance. the following questions were major ideas of thisstudy: what are the most effective components in demand chain? andhow are they effective on organizational performance? to this end,m...

Sanitation improvement is crucial in saving lives that are lost due to water contamination. Progress towards achieving full sanitation coverage is still slow in low-income informal settlements in most developing countries. Furthermore, resources are being wasted on installing facilities that are later misused or never used because they do not meet the local demand. Understanding demand for impr...

Business organizations that deal with consumable and perishable items have consistently incurred enormous loss as a result of the nature their goods. The losses direct negative impact on revenues. Unplanned lack precise production prediction models are responsible for this. An appropriate model, developed to guide plan processes will help manufacturers in deciding which product make what quanti...

In this paper, we consider an adaptive base-stock policy for a single-item inventory system, where the demand process is nonstationary. In particular, the demand process is an integrated moving average process of order (0, 1, 1), for which an exponential-weighted moving average provides the optimal forecast. For the assumed control policy we characterize the inventory random variable and use th...