In this paper we extend the standard human capital model with the probability of becoming unemployed and uncertainty about future earnings. Our analysis deviates from earlier human capital cum uncertainty models in assuming risk neutral decision-makers. This allows a straightforward comparison with the standard model and also facilitates calculations of unemployment and uncertainty accounted ra...

Modeling Income Dynamics for Public Policy Design: An Application to Income Contingent Student Loans This paper studies the importance of dynamic earnings modeling for the design of income contingent student loans (ICLs). ICLs have been shown to be theoretically optimal in terms of efficiency in the presence of risk aversion, adverse selection and moral hazard, and have attractive equity proper...

We analyze the effect of exposure to international trade on earnings and employment of U.S. workers from 1992 through 2007 by exploiting industry shocks to import competition stemming from China’s spectacular rise as a manufacturing exporter paired with longitudinal data on individual earnings by employer spanning close to two decades. Individuals who in 1991 worked in manufacturing industries ...

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of cash dividend components on corporates earnings persistence and return on stock. The population of study consists of 109 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange from 2011 to 2016. Data was analyzed using regression model. According to results, the cash component of earnings is more persistent than accruals and it can be used to predict future...

We argue that high quality firms that expect larger quantity of cash flows in the near future are more likely to actively smooth earnings via discretionary accruals before seasonal equity offerings to reduce underpricing. If high quality firms are confident about future earnings, it is also plausible to assume that they also push their offer prices up more aggressively, and lessen the degree of...

Previous literature studying analysts’ earnings forecasts examines their properties without considering firms’ response to analysts’ forecasts. This study improves upon previous research by considering firms’ earnings management with respect to analysts’ forecasts. I hypothesize that analysts understand firms’ earnings management practices, and incorporate firms’ expected behavior into their fo...

How does investors' aversion to environmental risk affect their reaction towards firms' earnings announcements? We explore this by analyzing announcements made U.S. firms between 2002 and 2016. The results show that performance at the firm level is important for investors as influences investment behaviors of who have some degree risk. These appreciate exhibit a high performance, i.e., successf...

This dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay provides a rational explanation of the mysterious earnings discontinuity phenomenon. It also develops two new empirical predictions which are supported by the empirical tests. The second essay identifies conditions under which leading indicator variables discourage long-term investment. Essay 1: Discontinuity in Earnings Distribution: A ...

This paper proposes a new method for estimating the intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings from data that contain only short sections of individual earnings histories. The approach infers lifetime earnings persistence from the persistence of short earnings averages together with information about the stochastic process governing individual earnings. I …nd that lifetime earnings are ...