نتایج جستجو برای: earning forecast error

تعداد نتایج: 282282  

2016
Alison M. Fowler

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window le...

Journal: :Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology 2013
Elizabeth E Crone Martha M Ellis William F Morris Amanda Stanley Timothy Bell Paulette Bierzychudek Johan Ehrlén Thomas N Kaye Tiffany M Knight Peter Lesica Gerard Oostermeijer Pedro F Quintana-Ascencio Tamara Ticktin Teresa Valverde Jennifer L Williams Daniel F Doak Rengaian Ganesan Kathyrn McEachern Andrea S Thorpe Eric S Menges

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models fo...

2015
Sebastian M. Blanc Thomas Setzer

We present ongoing work on a model-driven decision support system (DSS) that is aimed at providing guidance on reflecting and adjusting judgmental forecasts. We consider judgmental forecasts of cash flows generated by local experts in numerous subsidiaries of an international corporation. Forecasts are generated in a decentralized, non-standardized fashion, and corporate managers and controller...

2015
Hanbin Zhang Jing Chen Yanan Wang Anthony R. Lupo

Based on the operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) in China Meteorological Administration (CMA), this paper carried out comparison of two initial condition perturbation methods: an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and a dynamical downscaling of global ensemble perturbations. One month consecutive tests are implemented to evaluate the performance of both methods in the op...

2003
Eric P. Grimit Clifford F. Mass

All types of end users who must make weatherdependent decisions stand to benefit greatly from knowing the expected accuracy of a particular forecast a priori. Forecast accuracy varies both spatially and temporally as a result of initial state and model errors, which change as the atmospheric flow evolves. Probabilistic weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles ...

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