Does the probability of moving from a recession into an expansion depend on how long the economy has been in recession? Similarly, does the probability that the economy may fall into a recession depend on the length of the expansion phase? The present paper tries to answer these two questions, at least as far as the U.S. economy is concerned. Some authors have already dealt with the duration-de...

Design: Data were drawn from participants in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) who had alcohol dependence (n=1172), cannabis use disorder (n=454), or nicotine dependence (n=4017) at baseline and who were reinterviewed 3 years later. Control variables included demographic characteristics, family history of substance disorders, baseline Axis I disorders ...

Data from epidemiological studies suggest that individual differences in cigarettes per day (CPD) and duration of smoking account for only a small portion of the variance in Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) (DSM-IV) nicotine dependence. However, DSM-IV may be an insensitive measure of nicotine dependence; other measures might better reflect the true nature of the ...

We study the influence of social networks on labor market transitions. We develop the first model where social ties and job status coevolve through time. Our key assumption is that the probability of formation of a new tie is greater between two employed individuals than between an employed and an unemployed individual. We show that this assumption generates negative duration dependence of exit...

Does prosody help word recognition? In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework in which word and phoneme are dependent on prosody in a way that improves word recognition. The prosody attribute that we investigate in this study is the lengthening of speech segments in the vicinity of intonational phrase boundaries. Explicit Duration Hidden Markov Model (EDHMM) is implemented to pr...

One of the major issues in the analysis of unemployment durations concerns the distinction between duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment and unobserved heterogeneity. Empirical studies rely heavily on functional form restrictions, which may be hazardous. We present a method for the nonparametric estimation of both phenomena. This method is designed to be applicable to aggrega...

This article presents a comprehensive review of the menthol cigarette dependence-related literature and results from an original analysis of the Total Exposure Study (TES), which included 1,100 menthol and 2,400 nonmenthol adult smokers. The substantial scientific evidence available related to age of first cigarette, age of regular use, single-item dependence indicators (smoking frequency, ciga...

Job Search with Nonparticipation In a non-stationary job search model we allow unemployed workers to have a permanent option to leave the labor force. Transitions into nonparticipation occur when reservation wages drop below the utility of being nonparticipant. Taking account of these transitions allows the identification of duration dependence in the job offer arrival rate and the wage offer d...

This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of re-employment probabilities for young workers in the U.S. Using data from the new National Longitudinal Survey youth cohort a model is developed to analyze the transition probabilities from nonemployraent to employment. The key factors examined include personal characteristics, unemployment income, local demand conditions, and duration depe...