We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role the transmission monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher allow banks earn larger spreads on deposits. Therefore, if risk aversion is than one, optimal dynamic hedging strategy take losses when rise. This can be achieved by traditional maturity-mismatched balance sheet amplifies effects sho...

Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area* In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance....

The Learning Cost of Interest Rate Reversals* In this Paper, we suggest a new motivation for why central banks appear averse to reversing recent changes in their interest rate. We show, in a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, that there is a learning cost associated with interest rate reversals. A policy that frequently reverse...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...

Premiums on US sovereign CDS have risen to persistently elevated levels since the financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether these premiums reflect the probability of a US fiscal default, namely a state in which budget balance can no longer be restored by further raising taxes or eroding the real value of debt by raising inflation. To that end, we develop an equilibrium macrofinance model ...

A positive technology shock may lead to a rise or a fall in per capita hours, depending on how hours enter the empirical VAR model. We provide evidence that, independent of how hours enter the VAR, a positive technology shock leads to a weak response in nominal wage inflation, a modest decline in price inflation, and a modest rise in the real wage in the short-run and a permanent rise in the lo...

What accounts for the significant real effects of monetary policy shocks? And what accounts for the persistent and hump shaped responses of output and inflation in response to such shocks? These questions are investigated in a model that incorporates labor market search, habit persistence, sticky prices, and policy inertia. While habit persistence and price stickiness are important for the hump...

21 22 Abstract 23 24 Does the dollarization of liabilites and the resulting balance sheet vulnerability prevent 25 monetary policy from serving its conventional countercyclical role? We study this question 26 in a model of a small open economy in which domestic firms face an imperfect capital 27 w market, with risk premia depending on net worth as in Bernanke and Gertler Am. Econ. 28 Ž . x Rev....

The paper deals with the computation of DSGE models with a large number (or continuum) of heterogenous agents and incomplete markets. Solving this model requires approximate aggregation, representing the cross-sectional distribution by a finite number of state variables. In the existing literature, people compute nonlinear solutions with a very low-dimensional state vector, or a high-dimensiona...

Article history: Received 23 February 2012 Received in revised form 18 October 2012 Accepted 18 October 2012 Available online 24 November 2012 This study estimates a dynamic latent factor model of the yield curve for Canada using a newly constructed data series on the term structure of constant-maturity, zero-coupon interest rates. The state-space representation of the model is used to assess t...