We consider the problem of model selection in vector autoregressive model with Normal innovation. Tests such as Vuong's and Cox's tests are provided for order and model selection, i.e. for selecting the order and a suitable subset of regressors, in vector autoregressive model. We propose a test as a modified log-likelihood ratio test for selecting subsets of regressors. The Europe oil prices, ...

This paper argues that credit frictions and asset trading costs signi cantly increase the probability of a Sudden Stop in the early stages of nancial globalization, and that this in turn, signi cantly alters the long-run external capital structure of emerging market economies. Upon opening the capital account, domestic agents have an incentive to accumulate debt and sell domestic equity in orde...

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of gl...

Rising prices of medicines are putting them beyond the reach of many people, even in rich countries. In less-developed countries, millions of individuals do not have access to essential drugs. Drug development is failing to address the major health needs of these countries. The prices of patented medicines usually far exceed the marginal costs of their production; the industry maintains that hi...

The standard measure of productivity growth is the Solow residual. Its evaluation requires data on factor input shares or prices. Since these prices are presumed to match factor productivities, the standard procedure amounts to accepting at face value what is supposed to be measured. In this paper we determine total factor productivity growth without recourse to data on factor input prices. Fac...

BACKGROUND To assess the effect of policies supporting local medicine production to improve access to medicines. METHODS We adapted the WHO/HAI instruments measuring medicines availability and prices to differentiate local from imported products, then pilot tested in Ethiopia and Tanzania. In each outlet, prices were recorded for all products in stock for medicines on a country-specific list....

FOR MOST COUNTRIES, HIGH PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR HAS BEEN A KEY DRIVER of structural transformation promoting long-term economic growth. Historically, low agricultural productivity growth has hindered economic growth and employment creation in the Philippines, where agriculture—which accounts for one-third of employment—remains a key sector. Climate change has the potenti...

This paper describes the participation of smallholders in commercial horticultural farming in Kenya and identifies constraints and critical factors that influence their decision to participate in this industry by selling their produce. The study employs panel survey data on smallholder producers of both international (export) and domestic market vegetables and controls for unobserved heterogene...