Abstract Extreme rainfall events leading to severe hydrological impacts warrant an accurate prediction of such not only on time but also in magnitude. Sri Lanka is a South Asian country that frequently affected by tropical storms. The primary aim this study was improve heavy forecast during the North-East monsoon over Badulu Oya catchment, Lanka. This accomplished simulating precipitation for t...

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts challenge meteorologists due to the wide variability of precipitation amounts over small areas and their dependence on conditions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Ensembles of convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models offer a way to produce improved precipitation forecasts and estimates of the forecast uncertainty. Thesemo...

Cyclones affecting the Mediterranean region, sometimes related to severe weather events, are often not well represented enough in numerical model predictions. Assessing the quality of the forecast of these cyclonic structures would be a significant advance in better knowing the goodness of the weather forecast in this region, and particularly the quality of predictions of high impact phenomena....

An important function of traffic flow management ensuring the number of aircraft entering a sector does not exceed the amount that can be safely controlled by the sector controller. One factor that makes this task difficult is the uncertainty of the impact of convective weather, as both the weather forecast and the impact given specific weather is uncertain. In this investigation, we study this...

While people need to know tomorrow’s weather to decide suitable activities and precautions, so do the “intelligent” building management systems. The accuracy of the short-term prediction of the ambient conditions is particularly import for the development of predictive control strategies. Although the shortterm prediction methods for outside air temperature have been extensively studied, reliab...

S models of reasoning (SLR) proved to be very successful in predicting behavior in the beauty contest game. Recently, a quantified version of the model was suggested as a more general model of thinking. In particular, it was found that the distribution of choices could be represented by a Poisson distribution. I test the model in stylized firstand second-price common-value sealed-bid auctions. ...

Precipitation is a very important topic in weather forecasts. Weather forecasts, especially precipitation prediction, poses complex tasks because they depend on various parameters to predict the dependent variables like temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, which are changing from time to time and weather calculation varies with the geographical location along with its atmospheric va...