The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this capital. In this paper we analyze in detail the errors produced by the use of this measure. We then discuss...

We discuss recent advances in the mathematical quantification of financial risk. The standard approach in terms of Value at Risk has serious deficiencies. This has motivated a systematic analysis of risk measures which satisfy some minimal requirements of coherence and consistency. Our focus will be on the basic structure theorems for convex risk measures, on the role of law-invariance, and on ...

One of the major problem faced by banks is how to manage the risk exposure in large portfolios. According to Basel II regulation banks has to measure the risk using Value-at-Risk with confidence level 99%. However, this regulation does not specify the way to calculate Valueat-Risk. The easiest way to calculate Value-at-Risk is to assume that portfolio returns are normally distributed. Altough, ...

The purpose of this paper is to review the recent derivatives security research involving liquidity risk and to summarize its implications for practical risk management. The literature supports three general conclusions. The first is that the classical option price is "on average" true, even given liquidity risk. Second, it is well known that although the classical (theoretical) option hedge ca...

Financial institutions define their marginal cost of risk on the basis of the gradients of arbitrarily chosen risk measures. We reverse this approach by calculating the marginal cost for a profit-maximizing firm with risk-averse counterparties, and then identifying the risk measure delivering the correct marginal cost. The resulting measure is a weighted average of three parts, each correspondi...

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of bank regulation on the size of the real sector. In particular, we address the question whether exogenous shocks on the return-risk characteristics of the technology and on the equity of the real sector are intensified or damped by a value-at-risk constraint on the credit portfolio of a bank. We consider a one-period model with three risk-averse agen...

Harsanyi’s work on games with incomplete information is by use of probabilistic approach and constitutes one of the most important developments in game theory. This paper presents a spectrum of credibilistic game, in which the incomplete information is interpreted as fuzzy variables and processed via credibilistic approach. As the leadoff, a strategic game with fuzzy payoffs is discussed by pre...

The classic Cournot game ignores the influence of players’ psychological behavior on decision and cannot deal with problem fuzzy information. To address such situations, a credibilistic is developed, where optimistic value criterion derived from credibility theory used to describe risk-averse manufacturers associated parameters are characterized by variables. Then, concept (α1, α2)-optimistic e...

Fossil energy markets have always been known as strategic and important markets. They have a significant impact on the macro economy and financial markets of the world. The nature of these markets are accompanied by sudden shocks and volatility in the prices. Therefore, they must be controlled and forecasted by using appropriate tools. This paper adopts the Generalized Auto Regressive Condition...

Two main axiomatically based risk measures are the coherent risk measure, which assumes subadditivity for random variables, and the insurance risk measure, which assumes additivity for comonotonic random variables. We propose a new, data based, risk measure, called natural risk statistic, that is characterized by a new set of axioms. The new axioms only require subadditivity for comonotonic ran...