in this study, a number of 95 synoptic stations of the country were extracted in a statistical period (1990-2007) in order to identify fog-prone areas and dust storms with vision less than one kilometer along with the dust. then, frequency map of the event, with vision less than one kilometer was provided by spline method in roads network in arc gis environment. also, air cloudy percentage map ...

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an emerging market economy like Mexico. The analysis emphasizes the importance of economic agents’ expectations – mainly inflation expectations and country-risk perception – to understand the effects of monetary policy in emerging market economies. It is shown that both, economic agents’ expectations and the correct identifica...

Researchers and practitioners of international market entry typically have a difficult task obtaining and processing requisite information to evaluate potential opportunities and risks. Essential analysis is often confounded by inappropriate measures of input requirements, inadequately defined information categories, and the overall complex nature of the decision process. In partial response to...

Focusing on multinational corporations (MNCs), we examine the impact of country risk on intra-firm trade linkages between a foreign subsidiary and the rest of the MNC’s global network. Panel data analysis on 3362 subsidiaries of 1050 MNCs covering the period 1983-1996 indicate that country risk has a positive impact on the subsidiary’s intensity of intra-firm trade. Additionally, this positive ...

This paper proposes a data-driven approach in determining an optimal inspection interval for a petroleum pipeline system. The approach accounts for the determination of both the probability of failure and its associated consequences. The probability of failure is estimated by fitting the historical data of failure of the pipeline into either a homogenous Poisson process or non-homogenous Poisso...

The central objective of this paper is to develop a transparent, consistent, selfcontained, and stable country risk rating model, closely approximating the country risk ratings provided by Standard and Poor’s (S&P). The model should be non-recursive, i.e., it should not rely on the previous years’ S&P ratings. The set of variables selected here includes not only economic-financial but also poli...

With globalization and fi nancial integration, there has been rapid growth of international lending and foreign direct investment (FDI). In view of this emerging trend, country risk analysis has become extremely important for the international creditors and investors. This paper briefl y discusses the concepts and defi nitions, and presents a survey of the quantitative methods that are used to ...

the world health organization’s (who’s) world health report 2010, “health systems financing, the path to universal coverage,” promoted universal health coverage (uhc) as an aspirational objective for country health systems. yet, in addition to the dimensions of services and coverage, distribution of coverage in the population, and financial risk protection highlighted by the report, the conside...

This paper constructs a model in which the currency composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating capital ‡ows between countries. In a two country environment, each country chooses optimal nominal bond portfolios in face of real and nominal risk. Current account de…cits are …nanced by increases in domestic currency debt, but balanced by increases in foreign currency...

While conventional wisdom holds that policy risk—the risk that a government will opportunistically alter policies to expropriate a firm’s profits or assets—deters foreign direct investment (FDI), we argue that multinational firms vary in their response to host-country policy risk as the result of differences in organizational capabilities for assessing and managing such risk, which are shaped b...