This paper uses individual loan data for a national lender to estimate loan price elasticities across loan products and racial groups. The data contain detail on closing dates and prices, enabling control for market volatility and construction of pseudo-prices for foregone products. The empirical model is a mixed multinomial and conditional logit which is rooted in a structural utility framewor...

This article provides a framework for estimating the marginal likelihood for the purpose of Bayesian model comparisons . The approach extends and completes the method presented in Chib (1995) by overcoming the problems associated with the presence of intractable full conditional densities. The proposed method is developed in the context of MCMC chains produced by the Metropolis–Hastings algorit...

The familiar logit and probit models provide convenient settings for many binary response applications, but a larger class of link functions may be occasionally desirable. Two parametric families of link functions are investigated: the Gosset link based on the Student t latent variable model with the degrees of freedom parameter controlling the tail behavior, and the Pregibon link based on the ...

Very short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the nonlinear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete-continuous mixtures of generalised logit-Normal distributions and probability masses at the bounds. Both autoregressive and conditional parametric autoregressive mod...

Using a sequential conditional independence assumption, this paper discusses fully nonparametric estimation of natural direct and indirect causal effects in causal mediation analysis based on inverse probability weighting. We propose estimators of the average indirect effect of a binary treatment, which operates through intermediate variables (or mediators) on the causal path between the treatm...

One of the main criticisms to game theory concerns the assumption of full rationality. Logit dynamics is a decentralized algorithm in which a level of irrationality (a.k.a. “noise”) is introduced in players’ behavior. In this context, the solution concept of interest becomes the logit equilibrium, as opposed to Nash equilibria. Logit equilibria are distributions over strategy profiles that poss...

We propose a test for misspeciication in polychotomous response models such as the conditional or the multinomial logit model. The test is based on comparing (a smoothed version of) the link functions of the parametric polychotomous model under consideration with a nonparametric estimate. If the parametric model is correct the nonparametric estimates should diier from (the smooth of) the hypoth...

The tradition of tossing a coin to decide who bats first in a cricket match introduces a randomly-assigned advantage to one team that is unique in sporting contests. In this paper we develop previous work on this issue by examining the impact of the toss on outcomes of day-night one day international games. We estimate conditional logit models of outcomes using data from every day-night interna...

We examine the impacts of agglomeration economies on the location of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Vietnam. Using a large dataset that provides detailed information about individual firms, we investigate the location choices by 920 newly created foreign firms in 2009 in about 125 different 4-digit industries. The estimates of the conditional logit model show that agglomeration benefits mot...

Little and An (2004, Statistica Sinica 14, 949-968) proposed a penalized spline of propensity prediction (PSPP) method of imputation of missing values that yields robust model-based inference under the missing at random assumption. The propensity score for a missing variable is estimated and a regression model is fitted that includes the spline of the estimated logit propensity score as a covar...