I investigate the determinants of business cycles synchronization, across regions and over time. I use both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in ...nancial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization in the context of a system of simultaneous equations. In all speci...cations, the results are as follows. (i) Simultaneity i...

Abstract This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The is derived applying the statistical method Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, grasps development broader activity has several advantages over assessment quarterly series Gross Do...

This paper confirms that the unemployment rate associated with stable inflation, the socalled “NAIRU,” probably has declined in recent years, after having risen sharply during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Although a demographic shift toward a less experienced workforce and an unexpected slowdown in trend productivity growth are able to explain the earlier rise in the NAIRU, a reversal of the...

I investigate the determinants of business cycles synchronization, across regions and over time. I use both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in ...nancial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization in the context of a system of simultaneous equations. In all speci...cations, the results are as follows. (i) Simultaneity i...