In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propag...

Research on economic fluctuations has progressed rapidly since Robert Lucas revived the profession’s interest in business cycle theory. Business cycle theory is the theory of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations The new Classical paradigm tried to account for the existence of cycles in perfectly competitive economies with rational expectations. It emphasized the role of imperfect info...

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. The following definition describes the measurement and importance of TFP for growth, fluctuations and development as well as likely future directions of research. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. As s...

We provide a business cycle model able to replicate the large amount of persistence in output and unemployment fluctuations found in the data. These variations in the unemployment rate are the result of self-fulfilling changes in expectations about future inflation in the wage bargaining process between workers of firms. ∗Financial support from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) is grat...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

The project “An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Context of a Multisectoral Model” was an ESRC-funded project (ref. no. R000233608) carried out at the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge between July 1992-June 1994. The full End-of Award Report follows.

If the benchmark model without frictions can replicate the stylized facts of the business cycle, the cycles may be just an efficient phenomenon generated by markets in response to certain shocks, such as, for example, productivity shocks. Furthermore, if markets are complete and individuals can diversify risk, Lucas (1987) calculated the welfare cost of the aggregate fluctuations to be negligible.