Richard Bradley’s Bayesian model of preference kinematics is compared with Sven Ove Hansson’s AGM-style model of preference revision. Both seek to model the revision of preference orders as a consequence of retaining consistency when some preferences change. Both models are often interpreted normatively, as giving advice on how an agent should revise her preferences. I raise four criticisms of ...

In general, the best explanation for a given observation makes no promises on how good it is with respect to other alternative explana­ tions. A major deficiency of message-passing schemes for belief revision in Bayesian net­ works is their inability to generate alterna­ tives beyond the second best. In this pa­ per, we present a general approach based on linear constraint systems that naturall...

The mystery of belief propagation (BP) decoder, especially of the turbo decoding, is studied from information geometrical viewpoint. The loopy belief network (BN) of turbo codes makes it difficult to obtain the true “belief” by BP, and the characteristics of the algorithm and its equilibrium are not clearly understood. Our study gives an intuitive understanding of the mechanism, and a new frame...

In this paper we present a methodology and discuss some implementation issues for a project on statistical/expert approach to data analysis and knowledge acquisition. We discuss some general assumptions underlying the project. Further, the requirements for a user-friendly computer assistant are specified along with the nature of tools aiding the researcher. Next we show some aspects of belief n...

We develop a probabilistic criterion for belief expansion that is sensitive to the degree of contextual fit of the new information to our belief set as well as to the reliability of our information source. We contrast our approach with the success postulate in AGM-style belief revision and show how the idealizations in our approach can be relaxed by invoking Bayesian-Network models. ∗A slightly...

Results from the approximate reweighting method used by the Scientiic Committee for its 1994 assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales are connrmed using the full Bayesian synthesis approach. Sensitivity trials are examined to investigate several areas of interest identiied during this assessment. The results show that the full analysis gives results which are very ...

An intervention on a variable removes the influences that usually have a causal effect on that variable. Gates [1] are a general-purpose graphical modelling notation for representing such context-specific independencies in the structure of a graphical model. We extend d-separation to cover gated graphical models and show that it subsumes do calculus [2] when gates are used to represent interven...

Bayesian belief nets (BNs) are typically used to answer a range of queries, where each answer requires computing the probability of a particular hypothesis given some spec-iied evidence. An eeective BN-learning algorithm should, therefore, learn an accurate BN, which returns the correct answers to these speciic queries. This report rst motivates this objective, arguing that it makes eeective us...

We describe a framework for the dynamic revision of user models in an adaptive Web store shell, which tailors the suggestion of goods, as well as the interaction style, to the characteristics and interests of the individual user. The behavior of the user is unobtrusively monitored, by segmenting it on the basis of the focus spaces explored in the browsing activity, and the actions performed by ...

This paper describes a formal system of belief revision developed by Wolfgang Spohn and shows thai this system has a parallel implementation that can be derived from an influence diagram in a manner similar to that in which Bayesian networks are derived.