A continuous time econometric modelling framework for multivariate financial market event (or ‘transactions’) data is developed in which the model is specified via the vector conditional intensity. Generalised Hawkes models are introduced that incorporate inhibitory events and dependence between trading days. Novel omnibus specification tests based on a multivariate random time change theorem a...

This paper evaluates the specification errors of several empirical asset pricing models that have been developed as potential improvements on the CAPM. We use the methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (J. Finance 51 (1997) 3), and the test assets are the 25 Fama-French (J. Financial Econom. 52 (1997) 557) equity portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market ratio, and the Treasury bill. We allow...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the presence of parameter instability. The empirical evidence shows that for some countries we can reject th...

This paper develops a novel and e¤ective bootstrap method for simulating asymptotic critical values for tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing among many nested models. The bootstrap, which combines elements of …xed regressor and wild bootstrap methods, is simple to use. We …rst derive the asymptotic distributions of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to foreca...

We specify a class of non-linear and non-Gaussian models for which we estimate and forecast the conditional distributions with daily frequency. We use these forecasts to calculate VaR measures for three different equity markets (US, GB and Japan). These forecasts are evaluated on the basis of different statistical performance measures as well as on the basis of their economic costs that go alon...

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternati...

Implied volatility indices are becoming increasingly popular as a measure of market uncertainty and as a vehicle for developing derivative instruments to hedge against unexpected changes in volatility. Although jumps are widely considered as a salient feature of volatility, their implications for volatility options and futures are not yet fully understood. This paper provides evidence indicatin...

This paper considers an important practical problem in testing time-series data for nonlinearity in mean. Most popular tests reject the null hypothesis of linearity too frequently if the the data are heteroskedastic. Two approaches to redressing this size distortion are considered, both of which have been proposed previously in the literature although not in relation to this particular problem....

This paper studies properties of an estimator of mean-variance portfolio weights in a market model with multiple risky assets and a riskless asset. Theoretical formulas for the mean square error are derived in the case when asset excess returns are multivariate normally distributed and serially independent. The sensitivity of the portfolio estimator to errors arising from the estimation of the ...

Equilibrium business cycle models have typically less shocks than variables. As pointed out by Altug, 1989 and Sargent, 1989, if variables are measured with error, this characteristic implies that the model solution for measured variables has a factor structure. This paper compares estimation performance for the impulse response coefficients based on a VAR approximation to this class of models ...