We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling is applied to draw 400 samples from probability distributions for 100 parameters in the EPPA model, including labor...

This study aims to evaluate effects of two downscaling methods; change-factor and statistical downscaling on therunoff of the Azam-Harat River located at Yazd province (with an arid climate) of Iran, under the A2 emission scenariofor the period of 2010-2039. For this purpose, CGCM3-AR4 model; a rainfall-runoff conceptual model, IHACRES; twodownscaling models, Change Factor and LARS-WG were appl...

Choosing a proper external risk measure is of great regulatory importance, as exemplified in the Basel II and Basel III Accords, which use value-at-risk with scenario analysis as the risk measures for setting capital requirements. We argue that a good external risk measure should be robust with respect to model misspecification and small changes in the data. A new class of data-based risk measu...

INTRODUCTION Despite evidence that breast cancer screening reduces morbidity and mortality, many women do not obtain mammograms. Our objective was to analyze the relationship between income and mammography screening for members enrolled in a large health plan in Hawaii. METHODS We analyzed claims data for women (N = 46,328) aged 50 to 70 years during 2003 and 2004. We used parametric and nonp...

It has been reported recently that classical, isothermal-isobaric molecular dynamics (NTP MD) simulations at a time step of 1.00 fs of the standard-mass time (Δt=1.00 fssmt) and a temperature of ≤340 K using uniformly reduced atomic masses by tenfold offers better configurational sampling than standard-mass NTP MD simulations at the same time step. However, it has long been reported that atomic...

and Applied Analysis 3 Theorem 2.3 Jensen’s inequality 5, Theorem 2.2 . Let a, b ∈ T with a < b, and suppose I ⊂ R is an interval. Assume h ∈ Crd a, b ,R satisfies ∫b a |h t |Δt > 0. If Φ ∈ C I,R is convex and f ∈ Crd a, b , I , then Φ ⎛ ⎝ ∫b a |h t |f t Δt ∫b a |h t |Δt ⎞ ⎠ ≤ ∫b a |h t |Φ ( f t ) Δt ∫b a |h t |Δt . 2.3 In 6 , Özkan et al. proved that Theorem 2.3 is also true if we use the nabl...

Long-term outlooks are key tools for policy design in the energy sector. These outlooks should also include scenarios considering active policies that address the challenge of climate change. Consequently such a CO2 emission reduction scenario was analysed as a case study within the ACROPOLIS project. This paper presents a method to derive regional emission targets that correspond to an emissio...