Although numerical weather predictions have been improved dramatically, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) remains as one of the most difficult fields to predict accurately. Forecast errors arise from the uncertainties in both the initial conditions and model formulations. To compensate those uncertainties there have been many efforts toward ensemble forecast. The use of ensemble methodo...

E very day, the U.S. weather enterprise collectively disseminates numerous weather forecasts to the U.S. public through various media. Considering the range of forecasts generated at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, the array of forecast providers and communication channels, and the size and diversity of the U.S. population, this equates to an enormous volume and multiplicity of inform...

This paper describes a system (RAREAS) which synthesizes marine weather forecasts directly from formatted weather data. Such synthesis appem~ feasible in certain natural sublanguages with stereotyped text structure. RAREAS draws on several kinds of linguistic and non-linguistic knowledge and mirrors a forecaster's apparent tendency to ascribe less precise temporal adverbs to more remote meteoro...

This paper presents the results of a study to quantify the performance of Weather Avoidance Fields in predicting the operational impact of convective weather on en route airspace. The Convective Weather Avoidance Model identifies regions of convective weather that pilots are likely to avoid based upon an examination of the planned and actual flight trajectories in regions of weather impact. Fro...

1729 NOVEMBER 2007 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | E very year, weather affects society in innumerable ways. Extreme weather—such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods—garners the most attention because of the damage extent, extreme conditions, economic loss, injuries, and deaths often associated with these events. But, nonextreme weather, including nonsevere thunderstorms, aboveor below-avera...