The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been demonstrated to play a role in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe in a number of recent studies. While the impact of the MJO on TCs in the Atlantic basin since themid-1970s has beenwell documented, a newly developed 107-yr-long index for theMJO allows for additional analysis of the impacts of theMJO onAtlantic TC activity. TC activity in...

[1] Using the AIRS retrieved temperature and humidity profiles, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) influence on the formation of Hurricane Isabel (2003) is simulated numerically with the MM5 model. The warmth and dryness of the SAL (the thermodynamic effect) is assimilated by use of the nudging technique, which enables the model thermodynamic state to be relaxed to the profiles of the AIRS retrieved d...

This research appraises how residential built environment growth influences coastal exposure and how this component of societal vulnerability contributes to tropical cyclone impact and disaster potential. Historical housing unit data and future demographic projections from a high-resolution, spatial allocation model illustrate that the area within 50 km of the US Atlantic and Gulf Coastlines ha...

An autoregressive model is developed to simulate the climatological distribution of global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The model consists of two components: a regression-based deterministic component that advances the TC intensity in time and depends on the storm state and surrounding large-scale environment and a stochastic forcing. Potential intensity, deep-layer mean vertical shear, and...

The statistical relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity is explored, with a focus on the North Atlantic. Although there is a statistically significant relationship between the QBO and TCs in the Atlantic from the 1950s to the 1980s, as found by previous studies, that relationship is no longer present in later years. Several possibilities for ...

5) Two metrics were evaluated to determine trends over the past twenty years. The first metric is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is the maximum sustained wind speed squared at six-hour intervals. ACE represents an approximation of the kinetic energy generated by a tropical cyclone. ACE correlates globally at 0.97 with Emanuel’s PDI index which is the wind speed cubed at six-h...

Since 22 April 2009, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued five-day tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. This paper introduces these forecasts, including the method used, interpretation of the results obtained, forecast cases and future challenges. One of the forecast’s unique aspects is its determination of the radius of a 70% probability circle (PC) using the level of forecast un...

18 A pilot tropical cyclone reanalysis project was conducted 19 to construct a reliable, high temporal and spatial resolu20 tion tropical cyclone dataset for selected western Pacific 21 typhoons in summer 2004, with the application of the latest 22 satellite observations and a 4-dimensional variational data 23 assimilation method. Primary data used for the reanalysis 24 include SSM=I rain rate,...

The US Gulf states are frequently hit by hurricanes, causing widespread damage resulting in economic loss and occasional human fatalities. Current hurricane climatologies and predictive models frequently omit information on the spatial characteristics of hurricane movement—their linear tracks. We investigate the construction of a spatial hurricane climatology that condenses linear tracks to one...