We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a forecasting strategy whose forecasts are ideal as far as this gambling strategy is concerned. A forecasting strategy obtained in this way from a gambling strategy demo...

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a set of rapidly expanding disruptive technologies that are radically transforming various aspects related to people, business, society, and the environment. With proliferation digital computing devices emergence big data, AI increasingly offering significant opportunities for society business organizations. The growing interest scholars practitioners in has resu...

Prediction markets provide an efficient means to assess uncertain quantities from forecasters. Traditional and competitive strictly proper scoring rules have been shown to incentivize players to provide truthful probabilistic forecasts. However, we show that when those players can cooperate, these mechanisms can instead discourage them from reporting what they really believe. When players with ...

During the last decade, complex event processing (CEP) has emerged as a technological foundation for many time-critical monitoring applications. CEP is powerful, effective, easy to use and low in costs at the same time. Common CEP applications are for example stock-market analysis, detection of fraudulent credit card use, traffic monitoring and consumption forecasting in power grids. Many appli...

Unlike traditional authoring, multimedia authoring involves making hard choices, forecasting technological evolution and adapting to software and hardware technology changes. It is, perhaps, an unstable field of endeavor for an academic to be in. Yet, it is important that academics are, in fact, part of this process. This paper discusses some of the common threads shared by three dissimilar cas...

Ecologists and biogeographers are currently expending great effort forecasting shifts in species geographical ranges that may result from climate change. However, these efforts are problematic because they have mostly relied on presenceonly data that ignore within-species genetic diversity. Technological advances in high-throughput sequencing have now made it cost-effective to survey the geneti...

The objective of this paper is to forecast the manpower requirement for technological banking. The major problem that the banks are facing is to explore the manpower requirement so as to provide better services to the customer as well as to increase the business per employee. Forecasting the requirement of manpower in bank depends on the basis of the transactions demanded by the customers. Ther...

Agricultural yields can be predicted from detailed multi-year remote sensing image sequences using measured features of vegetation conditions. In this paper, the dependency between the moment of prediction and the accuracy of the forecast is studied. The linear model is selected as a basic approach of yield forecasting. Then, the model is extended with non-linear components (factors) in order t...

The purpose of this study is to review the technological development policy and options in developing countries with special reference to the cement industry. A review of the international cement market, mathematical models for location and demand forecasting, technology transfer and finally a case study undertaken to determine the various options with emphasis on mixing capacity expansion proj...

This paper explores a theory of business cycles in which recessions and booms arise due to difficulties encountered by agents in properly forecasting the economy’s future needs in terms of capital. The idea has a long history in the macroeconomic literature, as reflected by the work of Pigou (Industrial Fluctuation, MacMillan, London, 1926). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we ...