To be added.] ∗This is a revision of the text delivered by the second author as the Jacob Marschak Lecture at the 2001 Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society, Kobe, Japan, July 21, 2001. We thank Julio Rotemberg and Lars Svensson for helpful discussions, and the National Science Foundation, through a grant to the NBER, for research support. Views expressed are those of the authors and d...