The continuous spread of COVID-19 virus around the world has exerted a great impact on world’s economy and security. China took lead in responding to epidemic with positive attitude contributed valuable experience fight against for people Based data published by National Health Commission, this study established time series number newly diagnosed patients daily basis. SIR model transmission dyn...

In this article, we investigate degenerate stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence. For the constant coefficients case, we achieve a threshold which determines the extinction and persistence of the epidemic by utilizing Markov semigroup theory. Furthermore, we conclude that environmental white noise plays a positive effect in the control of infectious disease in some sense compar...

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p−coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite populations of size N are situated at the sites of a lattice and infectious contacts are limited to individuals at neighboring sites. Scaling laws for both the mea...

Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based ...

We show how the standard field theoretical language based on creation and annihilation operators may be used for a straightforward derivation of closed master equations describing the population dynamics of multivariate stochastic epidemic models. In order to do that, we introduce an SIR-inspired stochastic model for hepatitis C virus epidemic, from which we obtain the time evolution of the mea...