[1] We investigate the intraseasonal (30–90 day) variations in satellite-observed tropical total ozone (O3) and their connection to theMadden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Tropical total O3 intraseasonal variations are large ( ±10 DU) and comparable to those in annual and interannual time scales. These O3 anomalies are mainly evident in the subtropics over the Pacific and eastern; hemisphere and pr...

We propose a general methodology for determining the lagged ensemble that minimizes the mean square forecast error. The MSE of a lagged ensemble is shown to depend only on a quantity called the cross-lead error covariance matrix, which can be estimated from a short hindcast data set and parameterized in terms of analytic functions of time. The resulting parameterization allows the skill of fore...

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in previous studies to significantly impact tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Most of these studies have utilized the Wheeler-Hendon index. This index is only available since 1974, the period over which remotely sensed outgoing longwave radiation data has been available. Our study utilizes a long reconstructed MJO index, based...

12 The stochastic skeleton model is a simpli ed model for the Madden-Julian oscil13 lation (MJO) and intraseasonal-planetary variability in general involving coupling of 14 planetary-scale dry dynamics, moisture, and a stochastic parametrization for the unre15 solved details of synoptic-scale activity. The model captures the fundamental features 16 of the MJO such as the intermittent growth and...

In this chapter, we present a model parameterization for organized tropical convection and convectively coupled tropical waves. The model is based on the main three cloud types: congestus, deep, and stratifrom that are observed to play an important role in the dynamics and morphology of tropical convective systems. The model is based on the self-similarity across scales of tropical convective s...

We investigate in this paper the dominant intraseasonal signals in both convection and circulation data using the nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA) method. Three Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) indices are constructed based on temporal modes extracted from pure cloudiness, lowerand upper-level zonal wind anomalies. All three indices reveal strong intermittency and capture well – thro...

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might par...