In this paper, we consider several efficient data structures for the problem of sampling from a dynamically changing discrete probability distribution, where some prior information is known on distribution rates, in particular maximum and minimum rate, number possible outcomes N large. We three basic structures, Acceptance-Rejection method, Complete Binary Tree Alias method. These can be used a...

Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses on sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming advantage of frequency over probability format...

Previous data suggest that probability judgments can often be fairly realistic, but production of probability intervals promotes extreme overconfidence bias (Juslin & Persson 2002; Juslin, Wennerholm, & Olsson, 1999; Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, & Barlas, 1999). We present a novel explanation of this format-dependence effect in terms of a naïve sampling model. The model assumes that people ...

In every sequential decision problem in an unknown environment, the decision maker faces a dilemma over whether to explore to discover more about the environment, or to exploit current knowledge. We address the exploration/exploitation dilemma in a general setting encompassing both standard and contextualised bandit problems. In this article we extend an approach of Thompson [13] which makes us...

We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere regio...

This article describes two probability sampling approaches to sampling water resources. In the rst approach, a complete enumeration of eligible sample units (e.g. stream segments, water bodies, drainage basins) is performed using GIS or paper maps to create a list frame. A probability random sample is then selected from this frame. In the second approach, a two-stage sample is selected. In the ...