a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: O43 O16 E44 E31 Keywords: Banking sector Stock market Economic growth Granger causality ASEAN countries This paper examines the relationship between banking sector development, stock market development, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries for the period 1961–2012. Using principal component analysis for the construc...

We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on emergence core periphery countries, joint determination depth recessions tightness credit countries. The model implies interest rates are similar in booms, with larger output growth However, common shock leads to crunch globe gives rise sharper spike dee...

In this paper we develop the first search-theoretic monetary model of a two-country global economy. We show the connection between deep monetary frictions (i.e. search and matching frictions), capital holdup externalities, and the realization of an endogenous departure from the “excess smoothness” problem in the real exchange rate found in standard models. Using this alternative monetary model,...

Relying on a present value model with time-varying expected returns, and incorporating a quite general class of processes to model bubble-like stock price deviations from the long-run equilibrium, we provide empirical evidence on the U.S. log dividend–price ratio over the 1871:1–2001:9 period, as well as for several sub-periods. The application of a momentum threshold autoregressive technique d...

We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles. In this model, changes in investor sentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes. We show how these bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes, unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfers of resources improve ...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008, central banks across the globe reduced their policy rates by unprecedented margins. At the same time, commercial banks were increasing their lending rates in order to protect their crisis-induced fragile balance sheets. To a large extent, these opposing reactions reduced the efficacy of monetary policy in accommodating the substantial dec...

We analyse the effect of the anonymisation method multiplicative stochastic noise on the within estimation of a linear panel model. In particular, we concentrate on the panel model with serially correlated regressors. In addition to anonymisation as such, the serial correlation in a data set with only few points in time increases the bias of the within estimator and therefore must be taken into...

Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving has important effects for real activity. High levels issued expansions are only gradually reduced recessions. generates an adverse feedback loo...

The paper shows that lottery-like stocks are hedges against unexpected increases in market volatility. The loading on the aggregate volatility risk factor explains low returns to stocks with high maximum returns in the past (Bali, Cakici, and Whitelaw, 2011) and high expected skewness (Boyer, Mitton, and Vorkink, 2010). Aggregate volatility risk also explains the new evidence that the maximum e...

In this paper we re–examine banks’ lending behavior taking into account changes in the stance of monetary policy in conjunction with changes in financial sector uncertainty. Using a very large data set covering all banks in the US between 1979–2000, we show that financial sector uncertainty plays an important role in banks’ lending decisions: for a given size classification, less liquid banks (...