Standard Bayesian multinomial probit (MNP) models that are fit using different base categories can give different predictions. Therefore, we propose the symmetric MNP model, which does not make reference to a base category. To achieve this, we employ novel sum-to-zero identifying restrictions on the latent utilities and regression coefficients that define the model. This results in a model whos...

In Siotani & Fujikoshi (1984), a precise local limit theorem for the multinomial distribution is derived by inverting Fourier transform, where error terms are explicit up to order $N^{-1}$. this paper, we give an alternative (conceptually simpler) proof based on Stirling's formula and careful handling of Taylor expansions, show how result can be used approximate probabilities most subsets $\mat...

The randomized response technique is an effective survey method designed to elicit sensitive information while ensuring the privacy of the respondents. In this article, we present some new results on the randomization response model in situations wherein one or two response variables are assumed to follow a multinomial distribution. For a single sensitive question, we use the well-known Hopkins...

We extend the classical problem of predicting a sequence of outcomes from a finite alphabet to the matrix domain. In this extension, the alphabet of n outcomes is replaced by the set of all dyads, i.e. outer products uu> where u is a vector in R of unit length. Whereas in the classical case the goal is to learn (i.e. sequentially predict as well as) the best multinomial distribution, in the mat...

This paper estimates a locational choice model to assess the demand for local public services, using a data set where individuals chooses between 26 municipalities within a local labor market. We assess the importance of the IIA assumption by comparing the predictions of three difference models; the conditional logit (CL) model, the mixed logit (MXL) model, and the multinomial probit (MNP) mode...

Title: WEATHER IMPACT ON ROAD ACCIDENT SEVERITY IN MARYLAND YUE LIU, M.S. in Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2013 Directed By: Professor and Chair Ali Haghani, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering This study was conducted to analyze and quantify the impact of weather factors on road accident severity, based on Maryland accident data during 2007-2010. In order to find a better ...

This report applies the results of Sanathanan (1972, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 43. 142 152) on estimating the number of trials of a multinomial distribution to the estimation of the size of the western Arctic stock of bowhead whales. Cell totals used in the estimate are from a whale census conducted during spring migration. The population size is modeled as the sum of the number of ...

Recently, dropout has seen increasing use in deep learning. For deep convolutional neural networks, dropout is known to work well in fully-connected layers. However, its effect in convolutional and pooling layers is still not clear. This paper demonstrates that max-pooling dropout is equivalent to randomly picking activation based on a multinomial distribution at training time. In light of this...