We analyse the convergence to stationarity of a simple non-reversible Markov chain that serves as a model for several non-reversible Markov chain sampling methods that are used in practice. Our theoretical and numerical results show that non-reversibility can indeed lead to improvements over the diiusive behavior of simple Markov chain sampling schemes. The analysis uses both probabilistic tech...

Classic performance evaluation using queueing theory is usually done assuming a stable model in equilibrium. However, there are situations where we interested the transient phase. In this case, main metrics built around model’s state distribution at an arbitrary point time. dependability, significant part of analysis previous work, developed approach to derive distributions some continuous time...

Drought is one of the inseparable elements climate fluctuation that causes a lot damages every year. Considering effects drought on different parts environment, agriculture, natural resources, wildlife, etc., forecast can be useful for managing crisis and reducing its damages. In this study, monthly was calculated based standard precipitation index (SPI) in several stations south Iran during ye...

The analysis of Markov Reward Models with preemptive resume policy usually results in a double transform expression, whose solution is based on an inverse transformation, both in the time and in the reward variable domains. This paper discusses the case when the reward rates can be described only by 0 or positive c values. These on-o Markov Reward Models are analyzed and a symbolic solution is ...

This paper analyzes the effects of product innovation on the firms’ investment behavior in a dynamic duopoly framework. A differential games setting is considered where initially two firms are active on a homogenous product market. One of the firms has an option to introduce a new product that is horizontally and vertically differentiated from the established product. The resulting differential...

Markov forecasting is a prediction method which the application in probability theory of Markov chain theory and method to study the change rules of the economic phenomenon and in order to predict the future situation. The purpose of this paper is to apply Markov chain theory to the actual market share analysis, it established Markov forecasting model of market share. This model was applied to ...

The tutorial introduces structured analysis approaches for continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) which are a means to extend the size of analyzable state spaces signiicantly compared with conventional techniques. It is shown how generator matrices of large CTMCs can be represented in a very compact form, how this representation can be exploited in numerical solution techniques and how numerical...