Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease is critical for early prevention and for better government strategic planning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of different forecasting methods based on the monthly incidence of typhoid fever. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and three different models inspired by neural networks, namely, ba...

Uncertainty can be defined as the difference between information that is represented in an executing system and the information that is both measurable and available about the system at a certain point in its life-time. A software system can be exposed to multiple sources of uncertainty produced by, for example, ambiguous requirements and unpredictable execution environments. A runtime model is...

BACKGROUND Physical inactivity is an important modifiable risk factor for chronic diseases. A new wrist-worn heart rate and activity monitor has been developed for unobtrusive data collection to aid prevention and management of lifestyle-related chronic diseases by means of behavioral change programs. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of total energy expendi...

Structural breaks and existence of outliers in time series variables results in misleading forecasts. We forecast wheat and rice prices by capturing the exogenous breaks and outliers using Automatic modeling. The procedure identifies the outliers as the observations with large residuals. The suggested model is compared on the basis of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage E...

Rather than use historical data such as stock prices, the authors chose to use "generic" time-series data from, "the famous M-Competition." One hundred eleven sets were analyzed using various combinations of network architecture, learning rate, and momentum. The Box-Jenkins approach to time series forecasting is explained. For purposes of this experiment, the expert system, "AUTOBOX," was used ...

In diese Arbeit wird ein Ontologie-basierter Ansatz zum Monitoring von IT-Systemen vorgestellt. Es wird untersucht, wie die Skalierbarkeit des Reasonings für die IT-Management-Domäne verbessert und zeitbehaftete Daten dargestellt werden können. Zudem wird ein Konzept vorgestellt, mit dem zusätzliche, nicht in der Ontologie darstellbare Semantik als Regelstruktur in der Domänenontologie modellie...

Abstrac The main purpose of this study is to predict the real estate price in Taiwan efficiently. Neural networks and Support Vector Regression are applied and compared. Variables are first selected from previous research and than chose by stepwise procedure and trial-and-error methods. It is found that SVR with trial-and-error method performed the best with MAPE=4.466% and R=0.8540. In additio...

Air ticket sales revenue is an important source of revenue for travel agencies, and if future air ticket sales revenue can be accurately forecast, travel agencies will be able to advance procurement to achieve a sufficient amount of cost-effective tickets. Therefore, this study applied the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithms (GA) to establish a prediction model of travel agen...