In the common jargon used by non-specialist commentators in newspapers or TV programs, business cycle downturns are sometimes described in terms of economic collapses, crashes or even earthquakes. Does these comparisons make any sense but for literary license? In particular, are economic recessions and recoveries governed at large by the same statistical law underlying earthquakes' occurrence? ...

Macroeconomics was born as a distinct field in the 1940s, as a part of the intellectual response to the Great Depression. The term then referred to the body of knowledge and expertise that we hoped would prevent the recurrence of that economic disaster. My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been so...

Much of the literature on microfinance performance has concentrated on the effects of institution-specific practices, but there have been comparatively few attempts to analyze how the broader economic environment affects the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Drawing on the work of Ahlin and Lin (2006), who find that numerous macroeconomic indicators affect MFI performance, this p...

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stocha...

We show that decomposing macroeconomic risks across horizon is key to uncover a tight link between risk premia and the real economy. Exposure in four-year returns to innovations in macroeconomic growth and volatility with a matching half-life of over four years is priced in a wide variety of test assets. Shorter-term risks are not priced. Importantly, we show that long-term growth and volatilit...

Using macroeconomic factors to forecast tax revenue is an important means of tax revenue forecasting, and it is also a challenging issue in China to which State Administration of Taxation pays close attention. As a prerequisite, the relationships among tax revenue and certain macroeconomic factors should be examined. In this paper, interactions among tax revenue, GDP, price level, and external ...

The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different industrial composition, financial structure, trade relations, and institutional environment. Depending on these characteristics, regions may respond differently to a uniform national macroeconomic policy. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneities to achieve the national development objective...

The effect of social preferences, such as altruism and trust, on economic development is widely recognized. However, the reciprocal impact, i.e., how individuals experience environment this shapes their has remained largely under-explored. This study sheds light effect, revealing an intriguing macroeconomic impact individuals’ preferences. By harnessing Global Preference Survey data a non-linea...