As the 1990s begin, social security is once again at the center of public debate. Under current projections social security is expected to post substantial surpluses during the next two or three decades and a string of ever-increasing deficits thereafter. In the meantime the social se­ curity trust funds are projected to accumulate large reserves. At the heart of the current controversy is the ...

Using a recursive empirical model of the real interest rate, GDP growth and the primary government deficit in the United States, I solve for the ergodic distribution of the debt/GDP ratio. If such a distribution exists, the government is satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint. One key finding is that historical fiscal policy would bring the current high-debt ratio back to its normal lev...

Using panel data, this paper tries to explain the amount of loans granted by the IBRD and it analyzes their effect on monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. To check for political business cycles, the influence of elections on IBRD loans is examined. The results obtained support the hypothesis that net flows are higher prior to elections. With respect to moral hazard it is sho...

this paper tries to survey the independence of central bank of iran and its relationship to inflation by using the data of 56 developing countries during 1990s. the results signifies that there are no significant relationship between inflation and the independence of central banks in these countries. in other words, according to the existing evidences, not all the developing countries with high...

We estimate the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Since the adoption of the Stability Pact, Eurozone governments have manipulated forecasts before elections. The political orientation and the institutional design of governments also affects the quality of forecasts. JEL classifications: H62, H87, C23, C53, E62

Output from the regional climate model RACMO2/ANT is used to calculate the heat budget of the Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The main feature of the wintertime Antarctic ABL is a persistent temperature deficit compared to the free atmosphere. The magnitude of this deficit is controlled by the heat budget. During winter, transport of heat towards the surface by turbulence and net lo...

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