â â â  â â â  abstract â  using a structural var with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, u.s. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity grou...

The validity of previous findings that dynamic factor models are useful for macroeconomic forecasting is of great importance for subsequent studies which use these models not only as a starting point for further developments but also as a benchmark for the evaluation of the forecasting performance of these further developments. Reanalyzing a standard macroeconomic dataset, we do not find any ev...

This paper studies the consequences of alternative ways of representing uncertainty about a law of motion in a version of a classic macroeconomic targetting problem of Milton Friedman (1953). We study both “unstructured uncertainty” – ignorance of the conditional distribution of the target next period as a function of states and controls – and more “structured uncertainty” – ignorance of the pr...

This paper studies the efficacy of China’s financial reforms in helping the central monetary authority to achieve its goals of macroeconomic stabilization. A local–local monetary game is presented which examines the investment competition between local governments in different hypothetical financial settings. It is shown that direct means of credit control and indirect instruments of monetary p...

This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004-2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. A...

Macroeconomic models are usually developed in a large framework that comprises hundreds of equations. Some pitfalls, however, are inevitable such as a partial failure of forecasts and some theoretical shortcomings of a large macroeconomic model (Lawson 1992 and Wallis 1989). In the early 1990s, small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) emerged as an alternative tool for comparing the results obtai...

This study aims to analyze: 1) the development of demand for craft SMIs products through the use of e-commerce, 2) the effect of e-commerce utilization, macroeconomic conditions, prices, and the intensity of promotion on product demand, 3) the effect of e-commerce utilization, macroeconomic conditions, prices, promotion intensity, and product demand for performance; and 4) the role of product d...