r a 200 .061 : +64 4 3 iwa.co.n Summary This study is devoted to simulation of the interannual variability of daily rainfall, such as the mean and variance of seasonal rainfall totals and the correlation between seasonal rainfall totals and a seasonal climate variable (e.g., an index of atmospheric or oceanic circulation). Prior work established that a mixture of chain-dependent processes, invo...

We show that student learning can be accurately modeled using a mixture of learning curves, each of which specifies error probability as a function of time. This approach generalizes Knowledge Tracing [7], which can be viewed as a mixture model in which the learning curves are step functions. We show that this generality yields order-of-magnitude improvements in prediction accuracy on real data...

The Generalized Pareto Distribution is a very useful tool for modeling in many areas of economics, finance and insurance. The Generalized Pareto Distribution is commonly used for extreme value problems. Especially, the values which exceed the finite threshold, is the focus in extreme value problems like in insurance sector. The Generalized Pareto Distribution is well approach for modeling the s...