Simulations and games are widely accepted as a powerful mode of teaching and learning. This is especially so in the field of finance in teaching students the intricacies of stock market trading. Stock market simulations complement more traditional methods of teaching finance by encouraging learning by doing, by generating motivation and enjoyment, and by engaging the business student in a simul...

This paper examines volatility models of currency futures contracts for three developed markets and two emerging markets. For each contract, standard models of the Unbiased Expectations Hypothesis (UEH) and Cost-of-Carry hypothesis (COC) are extended to derive volatility models corresponding to each of the two standard approaches. Each volatility model is formulated as a system of individual eq...

Using market prices for crude-oil futures options and the prices of their underlying futures contracts, we estimate the volatility skew in two ways. As a benchmark for our theoretical model, on each date we first estimate a crosssectional polynomial structure for each maturity to demonstrate the strength and weaknesses of a purely-mechanical model. We then apply to the empirical data a Merton-s...

This article offers a new conceptual framework for modeling and measurement of systemic risk factors at individual institutions level. The empirical results show that, there are strong negative correlations between domestic futures market with systemic risk factors. Domestic futures exposed to systemic risk. Further research should take into account such international risk exposure.

In this paper we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California-Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium fo...

This study adopts derivative pricing as an indicator of market expectations, with those results suggesting that general investors can use market expectations to predict the final settlement value of underlying assets. Most investment textbooks note that one of the major functions of futures is price discovery. Similarly, the implied volatility associated with option prices can be used to discov...

In this paper, we examine the statistical forecast accuracy of econometric models, surveys and futures rates in predicting the LIBOR-Federal Funds Rate (LIBOR-FF) spread during and after the financial crisis. We provide evidence that the futures market forecast outperforms all competing forecasts during and after the financial crisis. Our results also suggest that the predictive accuracy of the...

For the estimation problem of the realized volatility, covariance and hedging coefficient by using high frequency data with possibly micro-market noises, we use the Separating Information Maximum Likelihood (SIML) method, which was recently developed by Kunitomo and Sato (2008a,b). By analyzing the Nikkei 225 futures and spot index markets, we have found that the estimates of realized volatilit...

Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as “information markets,” “idea futures” or “event futures”, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting b...

Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contr...