portfolio theory assumes that investors accept risk. this means thatin the equal rate of return on the two assets, the assets were chosenthat have a lower risk level. modern portfolio theory is accepted byinvestors who believe that they are not cope with the market. sothey keep many different types of securities in order to access theoptimum efficiency rate that is close to the rate of return o...

1. PREFACE 'Consider mechanically integrating judgmental and statistical forecasts instead of making judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts …Judgmental adjustment (by humans) of (automatically generated statistical forecasts) is actually the least effective way to combine statistical and judgmental forecasts … (because) judgmental adjustment can introduce bias 1 (Mathews and Diamantopo...

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature i...

(G) and observed discharge (Q), whereas the other data-driven model, ANN-Ensemble (ANN-E), and the two conceptual models, HBV and GR4J, use forecasted meteorological inputs (P and PET), whereby we employ ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts. We compared low flow forecasts without any meteorological forecasts as input (ANN-I) and five different cases of seasonal meteorological forcing: (1)...

This is part of a series of weekly influenza forecasts made during the 2012-2013 influenza season. Here we present results of forecasts initiated following assimilation of observations for Week 1 (i.e. the forecast begins January 6, 2013) for municipalities in the United States. These forecasts were performed on January 11, 2013. Results from forecasts initiated the six previous weeks (Weeks 47...

6 [1] A new approach for developing multimodel streamflow forecasts is presented. The 7 methodology combines streamflow forecasts from individual models by evaluating 8 their skill, represented by rank probability score (RPS), contingent on the predictor state. 9 Using average RPS estimated over the chosen neighbors in the predictor state space, 10 the methodology assigns higher weights for a m...

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is described and the forecast performance is evaluated. The forecasts are based on tropical cyclone–like features detected and tracked in a low-resolution c...

Accurate and timely surf forecasts communicated in a clear, concise manner are essential in planning nearshore activities. In Hawaii, a large population of recreational enthusiasts comprised of both residents and visitors use surf forecasts on a daily basis. Forecasts are vital to commercial ventures, coastal engineers, ecosystem and geophysical researchers, and governmental coastal planners in...

The relation between the amount and quality of information available to meteorologists and the accuracy of their forecasts of a highly uncertain event (severe weather) was investigated. In three studies, meteorologists made forecasts under a total of four different information conditions. Forecast accuracy was low, and as the amount and quality of the information increased substantially, there ...

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. In the forecasting analysis, pooled forecasts constructed by taking the median value across the point forecasts generated by the linear VECM and the STVECMs generally ...