We consider the sources of forecast errors and their consequences in an evolving economy subject to structural breaks,forecasting from mis-specified, data-based models. A model-free taxonomy of forecast errors highlights that deterministic shifts are a major cause of systematic forecast failure. Other sources seem to pose fewer problems. The taxonomy embeds several previous model-based taxonomi...

Wind and solar power generation differ from conventional power generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This can have significant impacts on grid operations. Short-term forecasting of wind and solar power generation is uniquely helpful for planning the balance of supply and demand in the electric power system because it allows for a reduction in the uncerta...

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays an essential role in angiogenesis. This includes developmental angiogenesis as the loss of a single allele is embryonic lethal due to lack of development of endothelial cells. During early development, endothelial cells depend on VEGF for survival and if it is withdrawn, massive apoptosis results. This is not true in adult organisms; withdrawal of...

A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on modelpredicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and severity of flooding in the area. However, many current regional prediction models do not provide sufficient accuracy at the watershed scale necessary fo...

The Mahalanobis-Taguchi System is a diagnosis and forecasting method for multivariate data. Mahalanobis distance is a measure based on correlations between the variables and different patterns that can be identified and analyzed with respect to a base or reference group. This paper presents a comparison of the Mahalanobis-Taguchi System and a standard statistical technique for defect detection ...

in this paper semi-markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. semi-markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. in semi-markov models each zone can be considered as a state...

BACKGROUND Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with a 3- to 4-fold increase in both driving-related accidents and associated injuries. Methylphenidate (MPH) is the most commonly prescribed psychostimulant medication for ADHD. It has been demonstrated to improve performance on a driving simulator. This study investigated whether a once-daily, long-acting, osmotic, contr...