In this paper, we extract latent factors from a large cross-section of commodity prices, including fuel and non-fuel commodities. We decompose each price series into global (or common) component, block-specific components, purely idiosyncratic component. find that the bulk fluctuations in prices are well summarized by single factor. This factor is closely related to economic activity and, since...

What do social survey data tell us about the determinants of happiness? First, that the psychologists' setpoint model is questionable. Life events in the nonpecuniary domain, such as marriage, divorce, and serious disability, have a lasting effect on happiness, and do not simply deflect the average person temporarily above or below a setpoint given by genetics and personality. Second, mainstrea...

scious, though if ordinary dreams are ever conscious states they are counterexamples to this generalization.3 Whatever the case about that, the property of creature consciousness is relatively unproblematic. We can see this by considering creatures mentally less well-endowed than we are whose mental states are never conscious, even·when they are awake.4 Their mental states are all like the nonc...

Our paper is actually two contributions in one. First, we argue that IBM’s Jeopardy! playing machine needs a formal semantics. We present several arguments as we discuss the system. We also situate the work in the broader context of contemporary AI. Our second point is that the work in this area might well be done as a broad collaborative project. Hence our “Blue Sky” contribution is a proposal...

Boosting is an approach to machine learning based on the idea of creating a highly accurate prediction rule by combining many relatively weak and inaccurate rules. The AdaBoost algorithm of Freund and Schapire was the first practical boosting algorithm, and remains one of the most widely used and studied, with applications in numerous fields. This chapter aims to review some of the many perspec...

We show that a simple and intuitive variable, the return of bear spread portfolio orthogonalized with respect to market (H-Bear factor), can serve as new benchmark for explaining cross-section hedge fund returns. Low H-Bear exposure funds (bear risk insurance sellers) outperform high buyers) by 0.58% per month on average, even during crashes, but underperform when materializes. Overall, we iden...

Objectives: Self-determination is a significant skill in the proper transition from adolescence to adulthood. Parents play an important role in assessing the self-determination of their children. Currently, there is no valid instrument in Iran to assess parents’ views about the self-determination of their adolescents. The present study was conducted to determine the psychometric properties of t...