OBJECTIVES A treatment pathway model was developed to examine the costs and benefits of the current bowel cancer service in England and to evaluate potential alternatives in service provision. To use the pathway model, various parameters and probability distributions had to be specified. They could not all be determined from empirical evidence and, instead, expert opinion was elicited in the fo...

System dynamics requires the intense use of qualitative data and human judgment in all stages of model development. Most approaches to the formal inclusion of qualitative data have been developed with the purposes of knowledge elicitation during the conceptualization or formulation stages of model development. Although the importance of using expert judgment to assess the validity of system dyn...

Group judgments are often influenced by their members’ individual expertise. It is less clear, though, how individual expertise should affect the group judgments. This paper surveys a wide range of formal models of opinion aggregation and group judgment: models where all group members have the same impact on the group judgment, models that take into account differences in individual accuracy, a...

Suppose the members of a group (e.g., committee, jury, expert panel) each form a judgment on which worlds in a given set are possible, subject to the constraint that at least one world is possible but not all are. The group seeks to aggregate these individual judgments into a collective judgment, subject to the same constraint. I show that no judgment aggregation rule can solve this problem in ...

The proposed methodology is built upon the sequential use of specific tools, which are based on the integrated application of conceptual modelling and expert judgment elicitation techniques, decision analysis and probabilistic modelling, within the broader framework of the NetSyMoD methodology (Giupponi et al. 2008; www.netsymod.eu/), previously developed, facilitating the involvement of stakeh...

Suppose the members of a group (e.g., committee, jury, expert panel) each form a judgment on which worlds in a given set are possible, subject to the constraint that at least one world is possible but not all are. The group seeks to aggregate these individual judgments into a collective judgment, subject to the same constraint. I show that no judgment aggregation rule can solve this problem in ...