OBJECTIVE The objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases. METHODS According to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid an...

In January 2014, approximately 9 months following the initial detection of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) in the USA, the first case of PED was confirmed in a swine herd in south-western Ontario. A follow-up epidemiological investigation carried out on the initial and 10 subsequent Ontario PED cases pointed to feed as a common risk factor. As a result, several lots of feed and spray-dried porc...

This article has been retracted.

BACKGROUND The static Modes of Transmission (MOT) model predicts the annual fraction of new HIV infections acquired across subgroups (MOT metric), and is used to focus HIV prevention. Using synthetic epidemics via a dynamical model, we assessed the validity of the MOT metric for identifying epidemic drivers (behaviours or subgroups that are sufficient and necessary for HIV to establish and pers...

in this paper, we present a binary-linear optimization model to prevent the spread of an infectious disease in a community. the model is based on the remotion of some connections in a contact network in order to separate infected nodes from the others. by using this model we nd an exact optimal solution and determine not only the minimum number of deleted links but also their exact positions. ...

A non-linear model is developed for an epidemic with contact tracing, and its dynamic is studied. We present the data for the Cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic and fit the non-linear model, we obtain estimates for the size of the Cuban HIV epidemic, and for the mean time for detecting a person that is infected with HIV.

BACKGROUND The 2014 West African Ebola outbreak has evolved into an epidemic of historical proportions and catastrophic scope. Prior outbreaks have been contained through the use of personal protective equipment, but such an approach has not been rapidly effective in the current epidemic. Several candidate vaccines have been developed against the Ebola virus, and are undergoing initial clinical...

A kinetic model has been proposed for the spread of epidemics, describing dynamics variation in number disease-free, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases, based on a lag logistic equation. It established that this predicts possibility existence quasi-steady-state mode an epidemic which infected cases is constant due to balance daily increment infections recoveries. Conditions have identified und...