I show that managers overweight observations of local economic conditions at firm headquarters (HQ) when forming their macroeconomic expectations. This implies that HQ local economic conditions have an excessive impact on firm investment and employment growth. Using an empirical strategy identifying the impact of local economic conditions at HQ on employment outside the HQ, I find that a 1 perc...

In this paper we explore the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations of consumers by analysing the comovement in shortand long-run expectations. If inflation expectations are firmly anchored, a transitory shock should influence the short-run inflation expectations but not effect long-run inflation expectations. Utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer’s rotating panel micro...

The unconventional monetary policy of forward guidance operates through the management of expectations about future paths of interest rates. This paper examines the link between expectations formation and the effectiveness of forward guidance. A standard New Keynesian model is extended to include forward guidance shocks in the monetary policy rule. Agents form expectations about future macroeco...

This paper demonstrates how currently underutilised economic modelling techniques can enrich the analysis of animal disease problems. Increasingly, analyses of animal health programmes are expected to address a range of economic and social questions. These expectations can be addressed by better integration of epidemiological modelling with economic techniques whose application to animal health...

this collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which thomas sargent was awarded the 2011 nobel prize in economics. rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic dec...

We propose a Statistical-Mechanics inspired framework for modeling economic systems. Each agent composing the economic system is characterized by a few variables of distinct nature (e.g. saving ratio, expectations, etc.). The agents interact locally by their individual variables: for example, people working in the same office may influence their peers’ expectations (optimism/pessimism are conta...

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals’ expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models, appropriately identified, are estimated to draw out the differential effect of information on expectations...

This paper compares three reduced-form models of heterogeneity in survey inflation expectations. On the one hand, we specify two models of forecasting inflation based on limited information flows of the type developed in Mankiw and Reis [2002. Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), 1295–1328]. We pr...

Although the clinical goal of resective epilepsy surgery is seizure freedom, patients have a wide set of expectations for this invasive procedure. The goal of this study was to evaluate potential gender differences in expectations among patients undergoing resective epilepsy surgery. Ratings of the importance of 12 potential impacts ("expectations") of resective surgery were analyzed in a seven...