The explanation of aggregate and sectoral investment behavior has been one of the less successful endeavors in empirical economics. Existing econometric models have had little success in explaining or predicting investment spending. This may be because most such models fail to account for the irreversibility of most investment spending. With irreversibility, changes in the riskiness of future c...

The aims of this paper are estimate and forecast the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or nairu, for Brazilian unemployment time series data. In doing so, we introduce a methodology for estimating mixed additive seasonal autoregressive (masar) models, by the Generalized Method of Moments (gmm). Furthermore, in order to cover a lack in econometric literature, an asymptotic theory ...

Highly resolved precipitation forecasts are necessary in many applications, especially in mountain meteorology and flash flood forecasts for smallto medium-sized alpine watersheds. Here we present precipitation forecasts simulated by the limited area model ALADIN applying different grid resolutions (1x = 10 km and 4 km). Target area of the investigations is the Alpine Ticino-Verzasca-Maggia wat...

In the empirical analysis of consumer markets, recent literature has begun to explore the dynamics in both consumer decisions as well as in firms’ marketing policies. Other research has begun to explore the strategic aspects of product line design in a competitive environment. In both cases, structural models have given us new insights into consumer and firm behavior. For example, incorporating...

This paper has two main goals. The first is to provide a framework for studying children well being utilising a capability approach. A list of capabilities for children in developing countries is drawn and its methodological justification is provided. The second aim is to suggest an econometric model to estimate child well being, utilising the list of capabilities provided in the first part of ...

Generally, we value forecasts for their accuracy. In some cases, however, the forecasts themselves are interesting because of what they reveal about the forecaster. Monetary policymaker forecasts are important because they partially reveal what policymakers believe will follow from their decisions. Forecasts of inflation and real output (whether made by Federal Reserve officials or private sect...

Countries with low marginal costs of abating carbon emissions may have high total costs, and vice versa, for a given climate mitigation policy. This may help to explain different countries' policy stances on climate mitigation. We hypothesize that, under a common percentage cut in emissions intensity relative to business as usual (BAU), countries with higher BAU emission intensities have lower ...