Using fluorescence spectroscopy, we have demonstrated that isolated envelope membranes from mature spinach chloroplasts catalyze the phototransformation of endogenous protochlorophyllide into chlorophyllide in presence of NADPH, but not in presence of NADH. Protochlorophyllide reductase was characterized further using monospecific antibodies (anti-protochlorophyllide reductase) raised against t...

We investigate the determinants of aggregate commodity returns and establish the following findings. (1) Common predictors of bond and stock returns, such as the short rate and the yield spread, also predict commodity returns. A high yield spread predicts low commodity returns, consistent with commodities being a hedge for market fluctuations. (2) Even controlling for these common predictors, a...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and forecasting. This paper reviews some issues and challenges surrounding the use of these models at central ban...

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However, recent empirical research on factor models has shown that information contained in large data sets i...

In this paper we estimate a simple Bayesian learning model to expectations data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We reformulate the model in terms of forecast revisions, which allows to abstract from differences in priors and to focus the analysis on the relationship between revisions and signal. The model depends on two parameters, the forecaster’s belief about the signal bias and ...

The past forty years or so has seen a remarkable transformation in macro-models used by central banks, policymakers and forecasting bodies. This papers describes this transformation from reduced-form behavioural equations estimated separately, through to contemporary micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models estimated by systems methods. In particular by treating DSGE m...

The time evolution of aggregate economic variables, such as stock prices, is affected by market expectations of individual investors. Neo-classical economic theory assumes that individuals form expectations rationally, thus enforcing prices to track economic fundamentals and leading to an efficient allocation of resources. However, laboratory experiments with human subjects have shown that indi...

We present an algorithm and software routines for computing nthorder Taylor series approximate solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models around a nonstochastic steady state. The primary advantage of higher-order (as opposed to firstor secondorder) approximations is that they are valid not just locally, but often globally (i.e., over nonlocal, possibly very large compact s...

We contribute to a recent literature on the normalization, calibration and estimation of CES production functions. The problem arises because CES ‘share’ parameters are not in fact shares, but depend on underlying dimensions they are ‘dimensional constants’ in other words. It follows that such parameters cannot be calibrated, nor estimated unless the choice of units is made explicit. We use an ...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public fi nances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term e...