Purpose The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. can be used to analyze and compare various potential in terms their economic consequences. decomposition these effects into benefits helps policy makers other stakeholders better understand the ex ante ex-post advantages DRR investments. purpose this paper i...

In the paper the causal relationships between money and other macroeconomic variables such as output, interest rate, prices and exchange rate in Croatia were analysed. The basic principle of Grangercausality analysis is to test whether past values of monetary variable help to explain current values of output. Multivariate causality tests were performed in a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Th...

Economists have devoted a great deal of attention to modeling the macroeconomic implications of cyclical variation of borrowers’ creditworthiness, yet the literature has largely neglected the task of modeling the behavior of the bank. This omission in the literature is particularly unfortunate given the strong empirical evidence in support of the role of banks’ financial structure in lending de...

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indi...

We investigate the extent to which misperceptions about the economy can become self reinforcing and thereby contribute to time-varying macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, we build a New Keynesian model with long-horizon expectations and dynamic predictor selection. Because agents solve multiperiod optimisation problems (households maximise expected lifetime utility and …rms maximise the discounte...

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system. or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic mechanical photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior written consent of the publisher. A model of macroeconomic activity. Includes bibliographies and index. CONTENTS v. 1. The theoretical model-v. 2. The empirical model. 1. Macroeconomics-Mathematical mo...

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple ...