The size of grains in gravel and conglomerate deposits is most easily measured on photos taken from related outcrops. However, the occlusion by sedimentary matrix or other grains, possible distortions photos, could introduce a bias such datasets. Here, we explore uncertainties associated with datasets where lengths were photos. To this end, analysed coarse-grained (>2 mm) fluvial material pit (...

The concept of common knowledge concerning higher orders of knowledge has seen exciting new developments in the fields of philosophy, game theory, statistics, economics and cognitive science in the recent decades. Even though information lies at the heart of accounting and capital markets research, these new developments have remained at the periphery of these fields. Common knowledge thinking ...

Ghanaian manufacturing firms face a highly risky environment. Firms may attempt to manage these risks by undertaking production, input, and investment strategies designed to lower profit variability. Mean-variance analysis implies, however, that these strategies involve a trade-off with lower expected profits. This paper investigates the extent to which more risk averse managers who face high r...

We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. A Misspecification Equilibrium occurs in a stochastic process when agents forecast optimally given that they must choose from a list of misspecified econometric models. With appropriate restrictions on the asymptotic properties of the exogeneous process and on the feedback of expectations, the Misspecification...

This paper generalizes existence results on first-order Stochastic Consistent Expectations Equilibria (SCEE) obtained by (Hommes, Sorger, and Wagener 2002). We present a stochastic non-linear self-referential model in which expectations are based on linear perceptions. In an SCEE the sample mean and correlation coefficients of the true and perceived processes coincide. We provide conditions on ...

Mass adult male circumcision campaigns for HIV prevention are underway across much of Sub-Saharan Africa. However, concern remains about risk compensation associated with the reduction in the probability of HIV transmission per risky act. This paper examines the behavioral response to male circumcision in Kisumu, Kenya. Contrary to the presumption of risk compensation, we find that the response...

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficient outcomes has long been a subject of controversy. Aumann conjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, “an agreement to play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what the players will do” and thus should not affect behavior. Farrell and Rabin suspect that cheap talk will achieve efficiency. Results show im...

Consider the Rational Expectations price history of an Arrow-Debreu security that matures in the money: p1; p2; :::; pT . Past information can be used to predict the return (pt+1 pt)=pt. Now consider a simple alternative performance measure: (pt+1 pt)=pt+1. It di ers from the return only in that the future price is used as basis. This variable cannot be forecasted from past information. The res...

The endowment effect has been widely documented. Recent models of reference-dependent preferences indicate that expectations play a prominent role in the presence of the phenomenon. A subset of such expectations-based models predicts an endowment effect for risk when reference points change from certain to stochastic. In two purposefully simple risk preference experiments, eliminating often-dis...