We examine correlations between student learning and student acoustic-prosodic profiles, which prior research has shown to be predictive of emotional states. We compare these correlations in two corpora of spoken tutoring dialogues: a human-human corpus and a human-computer corpus. Our results suggest that rather than relying on emotion prediction models developed via the more labor-intensive m...

Land surface processes and their initialization are of crucial importance to address the challenge of seamless (from weather to seasonal) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). In particular it has been found that soil moisture influences the landatmosphere exchange processes on all relevant time scales. It is therefore expected to be of high interest for NWP applications to assimilate new satelli...

Earth orientation prediction has undergone a number of changes over the last few decades in response to changing conditions in the Earth orientation parameter user community. However, considering the recent pace of change, it is likely that the rate at which innovations are introduced into the prediction process will increase. Potential drivers for change are discussed and possible directions f...

To test the accuracy of statistically downscaled precipitation estimates from numerical weather prediction models, a set of experiments to study what space and time scales are appropriate to obtain downscaled precipitation forecasts with maximum skill have been carried out. Fourteen-day forecasts from the 1998 version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Medium-Range Fore...

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Mon...

mixed layer is a part of the atmospheric boundary layer in which pollutants are uniformly distributed. it is sensitive to the earth’s surface, controls the flow of heat and momentum between the surface and the free atmosphere, thus playing a key role in atmospheric circulation. most of atmospheric pollution models require the height of the mixed layer as an input to determine the depth of atmos...

A rapidly growing empirical literature seeks to estimate the costs of future climate change from time series variation in weather. I formally analyze the consequences of a change in climate for economic outcomes. I show that those consequences are driven by changes in the distribution of realized weather and by expectations channels that capture how anticipated changes in the distribution of we...