BACKGROUND Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission. METHODS We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa. Using d...

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and dec...

[1] Quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change projections is important for a range of reasons. We examine the sensitivity of regional climate change probabilities to various uncertainties. We use a simple probabilistic energy balance model that samples uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing. We then propagat...

Multi-model ensembles of climate predictions constructed by running several global climate models for a common set of experiments are available for impact assessment of climate change. Multi-model ensembles emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate models as well as uncertainty due to variations in initial conditions or model pa...

Global warming due to greenhouse effect is expected to cause major changes in climate of some regions. The change of climate is likely to have a profound effect on hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET, as the major component of hydrological cycle, will affect crop water requirement and future planning and management of water resources. This study was conducted to investigate climate chang...