We extend the foundation of probability in samples with rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans, such as natural hazards, market crashes, catastrophic climate change, and species extinction. Such events are generally treated as “outliers” and disregarded. We propose a new axiomatization of probability requiring equal treatment in the measurement of rare and frequent ev...

Mass fish kills capture the world’s attention and their frequency is increasing worldwide. The sudden death of many millions native in Darling–Baaka River Australia 2018–19 was a catalyst for 11 articles this special issue. Collectively, they advance our understanding how to manage these events, dealing with: ecological impacts recovery; technologies approaches prediction, preparedness response...

We propose that catastrophic events are " outliers " with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and hum...

With the rapid growth of the Internet, there has been increased interest in the use of computer models to study the dynamics of communication networks in the research literature. An important example of this has been the study of dramatic, but relatively infrequent, events that result in abrupt, and often catastrophic, failures in the network due to congestion. These events are sometimes known ...

Catastrophic risks differ in terms of their natural or human origins, their possible amplification by human behaviors, and the relationships between those who create the risks and those who suffer the losses. Given their disparate anatomies, catastrophic risks generally require tailored therapies, with each prescribed therapy employing a specific portfolio of policy strategies. Given that catas...

Background: Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) is a disorder that manifests clinically as recurrent venous or arterial thrombosis and/or foetal loss. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) is a very severe variant of the classic APS. It is characterized by clinical evidence of multiple organ involvement developing over a very short period of time, histopathological evidence of multiple smal...

OBJECTIVES To evaluate treatment-seeking behaviour, financial impact and time lost due to malaria events, in southern Mozambique and eastern South Africa. METHODS In-depth household surveys (828 in Mozambique and 827 in South Africa) were analysed. An asset index was calculated using principal component analysis to allow comparison across socio-economic groups. Direct costs of seeking care an...