This paper considers a wide range of stochastic reserving models for use in general insurance, beginning with stochastic models which reproduce the traditional chain-ladder reserve estimates. The models are extended to consider parametric curves and smoothing models for the shape of the development run-off, which allow extrapolation for the estimation of tail factors. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson t...

OBJECTIVES To assess how accessible general practitioners are to patients by telephone and to examine the relations between organisation, number of lines, and number of patient-doctor calls. DESIGN Postal survey of a random sample of general practitioners stratified by rural and urban practice areas, with differential sampling fractions. SETTING General practices in England and Wales. SUB...

In this paper we consider the additive loss reserving (ALR) method in a Bayesian set up. The classical ALR method is a simple claims reserving method which combines prior information (e.g. premium, number of contracts, market statistics) and claims observations. The presented Bayesian set up allows in addition for combining the information from a single run-off portfolio (e.g. company specific ...

________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Bayesian approach is applied to evaluate the prediction uncertainty in chain ladder reserving. First, the philosophy of the Bayesian approach to prediction uncertainty is introduced and compared with the Frequentist approach. All parameters in the model are then estimated using the Bayesian approach, with multiple...

Often in non-life insurance, claims reserves are the largest position on the liability side of the balance sheet. Therefore, the estimation of adequate claims reserves for a portfolio consisting of several run-off subportfolios is relevant for every nonlife insurance company. In the present paper we provide a framework in which we unify the multivariate Chain-ladder (CL) model and the multivari...