Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method to assess seismic hazard and risk for various aspects of public and financial policy, it contains a mathematical error in the formulations. This mathematical error results in difficulties in understanding and application of PSHA. A new approach is presented in this paper. Seismic hazards derived from the new ap...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic techniqu...

Abstract The goal of this paper is to review and critically discuss the philosophical aspects probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Given that estimates are typically riddled with uncertainty, different epistemic values (related pursuit scientific knowledge) compete in selection models, a context influenced by non-epistemic practical goals aims) as well. We first distinguish between typ...

As for any model/theory, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) model is best tested by comparing its predictions with observations that are independent, e.g. which have not been used for creating the model. Arguably, the most valuable information in the context of seismic hazard analysis is information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occuring over time i...