Mobile phones are a pervasive platform for opportunistic sensing of behaviors and opinions. We show that location and communication sensors can be used to model individual symptoms, long-term health outcomes, and diffusion of opinions in society. For individuals, phone-based features can be used to predict changes in health, such as common colds, influenza, and stress, and automatically identif...

Can randomized experiments at the individual level help assess the persuasive effects of campaign tactics? In the contemporary U.S., vote choice is not observable, so one promising research design involves randomizing appeals and then using a survey to measure vote intentions. Here, we analyze one such field experiment conducted during the 2008 presidential election in which 56,000 registered v...

In traditional models, votes are an expression of preferences and beliefs. Psychological theories of cognitive dissonance suggest, however, that behavior may shape preferences. In this view, the very act of voting may influence political attitudes. A vote for a candidate may lead to more favorable interpretations of his actions in the future. We test the empirical relevance of cognitive dissona...

Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presidential election featured an active prediction market at Intrade.com where securities addressing many different election-related outcomes were traded. Using the 2004 data from this market, we examined three alternative models for these security prices with special focus on the electoral college rules that govern US pres...

Mobile phones are a pervasive platform for opportunistic sensing of behaviors and opinions. We show that location and communication sensors can be used to model individual symptoms, longterm health outcomes, and diffusion of opinions in a community. For individuals, phone-based features can be used to predict changes in health, such as common colds, influenza, and stress, and automatically iden...

In an election year, political messaging can become feisty or even violent. In the 2012 U.S. presidential election, Americans were inundated with statements that metaphorically referred to violence, such as “Romney slams Obama” and”Romney slaughtered Obama.” Such expressions grab our attention and resonate with our understanding of actual physical violence. Despite their frequent use in electio...

Politicians adopt a variety of linguistic strategies in their speeches to connect with their audience. To name one, appraisal, as a system of interpersonal meaning, is concerned with evaluation where resources are used for negotiating social relationships. Despite their significance in shaping texts, there have hardly been any extensive inventories of appraisal tools contrasting electoral speec...

politicians adopt a variety of linguistic strategies in their speeches to connect with their audience. to name one, appraisal, as a system of interpersonal meaning, is concerned with evaluation where resources are used for negotiating social relationships. despite their significance in shaping texts, there have hardly been any extensive inventories of appraisal tools contrasting electoral speec...

Using the most extensive dataset available on the 2008 election, I examine the impact of dog ownership on presidential vote preference. Canines were elevated to the status of a campaign issuewhen, during the2008campaign,BarackObamapubliclypromised his daughters a dog after the electionwas over, a campaign promise that has since been fulfilled.However, thisannouncementappearstohaveunintentionall...