این پژوهش با الهام گرفتن از نتایج یک طرح مطالعاتی کاربردی، رویکرد سلسله­‌مراتبی جهت پیگیری فرایند توسعه تأمین‌کنندگان و حمایت تصمیمات موجود در هر مراحل آن ارائه‌ می‌کند. ابتدا، زمینه‌های تأمین نیازمند سپس واجد شرایط هریک زمینه‌ها به کمک تصمیم‌گیری چندشاخصه بهترین-بدترین مشخص می‌گردند. معیارهای شناسایی نیز مرور مطالعات پیشین بهره‌گیری نظرات خبرگان حوزه‌ی خرید استخراج‌شده‌اند. درنهایت، مدل ریاضی ...

To scientifically predict the future energy demand of Shandong province, this study chose the past energy demand of Shandong province during 1995–2015 as the research object. Based on building model data sequences, the GM-ARIMA model, the GM (1,1) model, and the ARIMA model were used to predict the energy demand of Shandong province for the 2005–2015 data, the results of which were then compare...

In this work, the seasonality and performance loss rates of eleven grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems of different technologies were evaluated through seasonal adjustment. The classical seasonal decomposition (CSD) and X-12-ARIMA statistical techniques were applied on monthly DC performance ratio, RP, time series, constructed from field measurements over the systems' first five years of o...

Two widely-used seasonal adjustment programs are the U.S. Census Bureau's X-12-ARIMA and the SEATS program for ARIMA-model-based signal extraction written by Agustin Maravall. In previous studies with SEATS and X-12-ARIMA, we found some series where the adjustment from SEATS had smaller revisions than the adjustment from X-12-ARIMA (Hood, Ashley, and Findley, 2000). Based on this previous work,...

0950-7051/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier B.V. A doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2010.07.006 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 3 5712121x573 E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Y.-S (L.-I. Tong). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), which is a conventional statistical method, is employed in many fields to construct models for forecasting time series. Although ARIMA can be adopte...

In business, industry and government agencies, anticipating future behavior that involves many critical variables for nation wealth creation is vitally important, thus the necessity to make precise decision by the policy makers is really essential. Consequently, an accurate and reliable forecast system is needed to compose such predictions. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to develop a ...

BACKGROUND Sporadic hepatitis E has become an important public health concern in China. Accurate forecasting of the incidence of hepatitis E is needed to better plan future medical needs. Few mathematical models can be used because hepatitis E morbidity data has both linear and nonlinear patterns. We developed a combined mathematical model using an autoregressive integrated moving average model...