The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts require the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, we present a modification of the double long memory ARFIMA-FIGARCH model introducing time-varying memory coef...

Weather patterns recognition is very important to improve forecasting skills regarding severe storm conditions over a given area of the Earth. Severe weather can damage electric and telecommunication systems, besides generating material losses and even losses of life (Cooray et al., 2007; Lo Piparo, 2010; Santos et al., 2011). In especial for the electrical sector, is strategic to recognize wea...

JMA operates NWP models to meet various kinds of requirements on weather forecasting. The suite of the NWP models covers a wide temporal range of forecast periods from a few hours to two seasons providing a seamless sequence of products for the public. The Global Spectral Model (GSM) produces 84-hour forecast four times a day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) to support the official short-range forecasting ...

We develop an accurate model for the arrival traffic dynamics in terminal airspace that takes into account the weather forecast and runway configuration changes. The planning of runway configuration switching subject to weather constraints is formulated as a hybrid optimal control problem and a hierarchical approach is proposed to solve the problem. At the upper level of the hierarchy, a runway...

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. Early in the mission, the AIRS instrument demonstrated its value to the weather forecasting community with better than 6 hours of improvement on the 5 day forecast. Now with over eight years of consistent and stable data from AIRS, scientists are able to examine processes governing weather and climat...

We have extended an analytical workload model for estimating en route sector capacity to include the impact of convective weather. We use historical weather avoidance data to characterize weather blockage, which affects the sector workload in three ways: (1) Increase in the conflict resolution task rate via reduction in available airspace, (2) increase in the recurring task load through the rer...

All types of end users who must make weatherdependent decisions stand to benefit greatly from knowing the expected accuracy of a particular forecast a priori. Forecast accuracy varies both spatially and temporally as a result of initial state and model errors, which change as the atmospheric flow evolves. Probabilistic weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles ...

sphere–wave–ocean modeling system that is capable of resolving the eye and eyewall at ~1-km grid resolution, which is consistent with a key recommendation for the next-generation hurricane-prediction models by the NOAA Science Advisor Board Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group. It is also the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) plan for the new Hurricane Weather Research ...

The accuracy of numerical weather forecasts is crucial in many engineering applications, especially for the management of renewable energy. In this paper, we give a short overview of methods used to improve local weather forecast. Then we propose a new state space model in order to correct bias and phase errors in numerical wind forecasts. We present some results for real life data.